A. Caruzzo, M.C.N. Belderrain, G. Fisch, G.S. Young,
C.J. Hanlon, J. Verlinde, 2016
Decisão em
condições de incerteza meteorológica e proteção de infraestruturas no Centro de Lançamento
de Alcântara
Revista Brasileira
de Meteorologia
Abstract
The aim of this paper is present a decision support approach for
infrastructure protection under weather uncertainty at the Alcântara
Launch Center (CLA), in Brazil. A new index called Weather Decision Index (WDI)
was developed to identify the decision maker’s attitude about the three
characteristics of meteorological information: a) weather forecast probability;
b) lead time of the information; c) value of a meteorological variable. As a
case study, we analyzed the decision-making problem for a protection of an
aerospace vehicle and integration tower in the Brazilian Space Center. Through
the development of the WDI with the users, it was concluded that for low
probabilities (< 20%) or extended lead time (>24h), the group of users do
not use weather information to make decisions, even with a prognosis of extreme
conditions. The quantitative results showed that the decision model managed to
incorporate the attitude of nonmeteorologist users
regarding the handling of uncertainty in weather forecasts. The development of
WDI also indicated that the integration of the probabilistic weather
forecasting with a multimethodological approach of
Operational Research is adequate for decision problems under weather
uncertainty.