THE MIDDLE EAST (with special emphasis on ISRAEL and her Arab neighbors)
Theme:
That the Middle East is an area whose situation has made it quite literally a "crossroads of the world"--an area where so many major routes converge that it is impossible to ignore, and where great foreign powers have quarreled for domination of those routeways since the beginnings of recorded history. BUT, paradoxically, that the Middle East is an area whose site has been so wretchedly poor that with rare exceptions, it has had neither the population nor the wealth to fend off outside powers and to control its own affairs.
Corollary:
That the discovery of oil has fundamentally changed this age-old state of affairs by introducing huge wealth into areas which had only recently been among the poorest regions of the world, and thus introducing potential political power into places that had previously been politically impotent. In consequence, we are now witnessing an unprecedented state of affairs in the Middle East--not merely collisions between foreign powers, but now collisions between indigenous powers, struggling to control areas which they have had little experience in ruling, and attempting to cope with revolutionary ideas and revolutionary technologies.
Sub-theme (1)
On the geography of wealth. That despite enormous income from oil and gas, the Middle East is traditionally a region of desperate poverty, and much of it remains so today. Against that background of poverty, the Middle East contains islands of highly concentrated wealth, some valuable for reasons of site, some for reasons of situation. Conflict has repeatedly erupted for control of these "oases of wealth", and many such places have consequently been political hot spots for a very long time.
Sub-theme (2)
On the geography of modernization. That while much of the Middle East has stubbornly resisted the idea of "progress," certain specific regions have leaped ahead very rapidly, accepting and encouraging Western technology and ideas of modernization. These differences in stages of economic development have caused profound differences in political geography from place to place, which are often more important even than differences in language or religion or official political philosophy.
Sub-theme (3)
On the diffusion of ideas. That in spite of general poverty, the Middle East is so accessible to major routes of world trade that Middle Eastern ideas have moved rapidly outward into the far corners of the earth. That, in consequence, the Middle East has been a center for the spread of revolutionary ideas since the time of Moses.
Sub-theme (4)
Concerning geographic powder-kegs. When, in an area of chronical turbulent politics, new ingredients are added to the geographic broth--be they new nation-states like Israel--new military powers like the PLO or the Libyan army--new mineral resources like oil--or sudden changes in government like those listed on the next page, then the results are almost certain to be far-reaching. They are equally certain to be unpleasant.
The Middle East as a geographical unit: why it is hard to talk about the Middle East as a whole, but why it makes sense to do so anyway. The European idea of the "Middle" East. (The "Near East" originally represented the area controlled in Europe by the Ottoman Empire and thus extended from Greece into the area of present day Hungary and Yugoslavia. A question: is part of this Balkan area not still a little alien to the rest of Europe?)
How the intuitive idea of the area as a region emerged: the conjunction of (1) Moslem religion, (2) Arabic language, and (3) arid climate, and the way this conjunction works out on the map.
1. Religion. Why the map of Islam fails to define reasonable boundaries of the Middle East.
-- The vast extent of Islam beyond the boundaries of the Middle East
-- Divisions within Islam: the "Sunni" (majority orthodox) vs. "Shi'a" partisans and smaller groups such as the Druse, Ismailis, Alawites. Islam as a conservative philosophical system. Myths of Islamic unity.
-- The exceptions to Islam, and their extraordinary importance. Israel. Lebanon. Cyprus. Armenian Christians. Zoroastrianism. Other sects: the Bahai, and why they were persecuted.
2. Language. The special importance of Arabic. Arabic as a vehicle for Islam. Conservatism of written Arabic in contrast to spoken Arabic.
-- Non-Arabic languages in the Middle East.
-- Along the fringes: Persian, Turkish, etc.
-- "Minority languages" within the Arabic realm, and what they signify historically. Hebrew, Armenian, Greek, etc., etc., etc.
-- Soviet experiments in Russifying the language of Soviet Moslems.
3. Climate. The almost universal shortage of water. The great importance of exceptional areas: oases and exotic streams. Climate and topography and . . .
4. The Middle East as focus of routes. Which leads us to a brief discussion of . . .
The grand patterns of physical geography: how landforms and climate fit together.
1. Geology and its consequences: patterns of landforms, routeways, and minerals.
-- Stable continental platforms vs. arcs of Alpine orogeny. How plate tectonics helps explain these patterns. The stable areas of the south, and how they are coming apart. (Red Sea, and the Suez/Jordan Grabens: Gulf of Suez, Gulf of Aqaba. Relationship to the Great Rift Valley of Africa. Where Arabia fits in.)
-- What happens when platforms collide. The Mediterranean trench, and its relatives to the east. Persian Gulf and Indo-Gangetic Depression. Alpine arcs: the Zagros, the Elburz, the Anatolian arcs as part of the great Trans-Eurasian system of Alpine mountains.
-- How this all fits together: the example of Israel.
2. Climate and its consequences: the very uneven distribution of humid places.
-- The grand pattern: a review of world climatic patterns. What happens as one travels northward or southward from the Middle East. Why the latitude of a place is important. Egypt vs. Tunisia, and the Sea of Galilee vs. the Negev. Summarizing the effects of latitude.
-- The effects of mountain barriers on Middle Eastern rainfall. The main exceptions to the pattern of drought:
-- The Anatolian fringes.
-- The Levant: differences between the Lebanon and Anti-Lebanon ranges. Jordan and Saudi Arabia as rain shadows. Why the Cedars of Lebanon.
-- The Zagros fringes and rainfall patterns in Iraq and Iran. Effect on the Tigris-Euphrates drainage system.
-- The ITC and the Nile: impacts of ending the annual floods of the Nile by the construction of the second Aswan Dam and the creation of Lake Nasser. How this let the Russians into the Middle East.
-- Putting the patterns together: why Israel occupies a strategic location. The geography of petroleum: haves and have-nots.
A catalogue of troubles: A sampling of post-World War II events in the Middle East, to document the assertion that the Middle East has been the scene of an extraordinary variety and frequency of serious political trouble--trouble that has repeatedly involved great powers from outside the Middle East.
An introductory note: Why 1945 was a key date. The collapse of the old order with the removal of British and French mandates, protectorates, and various unofficial "arrangements." (Note the analogue with South and Southeast Asia at precisely the same time).
A pre-1945 overview. The lack of indigenous political power in the Middle East. Where the various European powers held sway. The role of oil in 1945 world politics. American reserves. Middle Eastern reserves.
1946: Azerbaijan and the end of the Russo-American honeymoon. The Truman Doctrine, and the unlikely pact between the US, Greece, and Turkey.
1947-48: Israeli war of independence. Cease-fire establishes de facto boundaries beyond the UN lines. How the Palestine refugee problem began. Origins of the problem of "The West Bank" and Gaza Strip.
1951: Iran nationalizes the oil industry. Anglo-American intervention; the CIAs proudest hour. Overturn and return of the Shah. Origin of Iranian hatred of U.S.
1952: Egypt: overthrow of the old order. The rise of Col. Nasser and what it portended.
1956: Suez War. Closure of the Suez Canal, and its effect on the technology of shipping and, in turn, on the whole geography of world oil trade. The super-tanker. Devastating impact of the Suez War on the role of England and France in the Middle East.
1958: Trouble in Lebanon; US Marines are landed to restore status quo.
1960: Cyprus independence. First civil war breaks out. The strain on US foreign policy.
1967: Six Day War. Israel "solves" her boundary problems. Gaza Strip, Sinai Peninsula, Golan Heights, the West Bank (again), and Jerusalem.
1967-68: Development of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as a major force in Middle Eastern affairs.
1970: King Hussein of Jordan ejects the PLO.
1973: The Yom Kippur War. Generally status quo ante bellum. Do wars solve problems?
1973: Arab oil embargo. OPECs (founded 1961) finest hour. Profound impact of OPEC oil price increases and of OPEC political power. Oil wealth and Iran's conversion.
1974: Turkish army invades Cyprus. Partition results. More strain on the NATO alliance.
1975: Lebanese civil war begins in real earnest. Syrian, Israeli inputs.
1977: Begin coalition takes power in Israel; Sadat flies to Jerusalem.
1979: Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty signed in Washington. Israeli withdrawal from Sinai. Beginning of anti-Egyptian coalitions among Arab states.
1979: Shah flees Iran. Ayatollah Khomeini returns. Moslem "militants" seize US embassy in Tehran. Oil price skyrockets on minor supply shortage.
1979: Soviet army forces move into Afghanistan and establish puppet government.
1980: War between Iraq and Iran; fighting results in major damage to oil fields and refineries in Iran.
1980: Libyan army seizes Chad. Col. Quadaffi again proclaims pan-Arab unity.
1981: Iranian hostage crisis resolved. Did Iran elect Reagan?
1981: Iran:Iraq war has little effect on oil supply. Oil prices peak then start slide. Ruination of oil exporting third world countries who had based planning on assumptions of continued high prices: Mexico; Venezuela; Nigeria . . .
1982: Israel takes advantage of Arab disarray and invades Lebanon. Triumph turns into disaster. U.S. Marines reap benefit of misreading of 1958 intervention.
1987: Palestinian Intifada. Breakthrough or breakup in Israeli/US/Palestinian knot?
1988: Russian retreat from Afghanistan. Important for breaking myth of Soviet Power? End of Iran-Iraq war. Stalemate a defeat for Iraq.
1990-1991 Iraq invades Kuwait, removed. Reality bath or more of the same old behavior?
1991- Removal of Soviet Union and a one superpower world lead to beginning of Arab-Israeli peace talks. "Diffusion" of islamic ideals (fundamentalism) from Iran to north African and Asian islamic countries begins to replace communism as a bogeyman for alarmists, including those anxious to avoid reduction in defence budgets.
Some recent headlines and other snippets:
"The Incessant Lure of Kuwait's Oil", NYT, 13/1/91, p11. Oil seeps, but Swiss expert said in 1920s there was no decided promise for drilling in Kuwait. But an ex-British officer (and a bit of a promoter or con-man) went to the US and got oil company interests up. British/American interests collided over who should get concessions. Anglo-Persian Oil stepped aside for Gulf (controlled by Mellon family of Pittsburgh). British Foreign Office diplomat said "The last thing we want is an oil war" with the United States. Reconsidered when oil found nearby by Standard Oil in Bahrain. Upshot a joint British-American venture, Kuwait Oil. Nationalized in 1970s.
"U.S. troops to build camps in north Iraq to aid Kurds; Bush sees 'temporary' role", NYT, 4/17/91, p.1.
Yair Evron. War and Intervention in Lebanon: The Israeli-Syrian Deterrence Dialogue. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins, 1988. Makes point that at least since 1976, Israel and Syria have been coordinating their policies in Lebanon to avoid armed confrontation.
"The Nile: a gasping serpent," The Economist, 27/2/88. Impact on Egyptian agriculture and economy of low water flow into the Blue Nile in Ethiopia and White Nile from Lake Victoria.
"Israeli unanimity on Golan's worth: more than peace with the Syrians," NYT, 24/3/91, p.19. Shows how things can change!
"How the Middle East was invented," NYT, 13/3/91, p.A24. Term coined in 1901 by U.S. Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan, naval geostrategist. Popularized in speeches in 1916 by Mark Sykes, a British M.P., who also helped negotiate the secret Sykes-Picot agreement which defined French and British spheres of influence in soon to be eliminated Ottoman Empire. Colonel Edward House, Woodrow Wilson confidant, said: "They are making a breeding place for future war."
"Turkish quake claims more than 570," AP, 14/3/92. In eastern Turkey, one of many natural disasters, notable among them drought, the area has to contend with.
"Spots in the Gulf," NYT 15/2/91, p.A35. Mike Dewar, deputy director of IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies, London) derided the impacts of the air strikes on Iraq's ability to fight a ground war in the Gulf. R. Kent Johns, a professional pilot, talks about the significance of the annual "khamsin" winds and sandstorms on the Gulf War campaign.
"A World Against Itself," The Economist, 2/6,88. This Survey of the Arab East talks about forces of unity and disunity. If you can't afford the time to read Albert Hourani, A History of the Arab Peoples (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1990) this is a good start to understanding the area.
"Gulf war's aftermath not so fun," CDT, 4/7/91, p.4B. George Will's column in the Centre Daily Times (just to show you even the local paper can have good stuff in it sometimes) asks whether the US is aware of the future burdens that will probably result in what it is doing when it blithely accepts such tasks as supporting the Kurds and Shiites in Iraq [or intervenes in Somalia or Bosnia-Herzegovina - avw].
"Israel study finds birth rate at lowest level since 1948," NYT, 11/7/92. The title tells the story here. The article talks about the demographic dilemma of Israel's jews in an area where their opponents' population growth is much faster. For instance, if Israel incorporated the Gaza strip and West Bank, there would be as many Arabs as Jews in the state in 25 years and Jews would then become an ever decreasing minority.