ASIA: A GLORIOUS 21ST CENTURY?

Etymological origin: Phoenician ACU (ashu?)--Glorious. Probably relating to sunrise.

If the nineteenth was the British century, the twentieth the American, then it may be suggested that the twenty-first will be the Asian century. It already has the most dynamic economies and the two potential powerhouses, India and China, will remain the two countries with the largest populations although their ranks will reverse. (Most have not included the former Soviet Asiatic land mass in discussions of Asia although the newly independent Central Asian states now qualify. The rest is still run by Russians and thus European, or as some Russians like to say, Eurasian). How did these developments occur? Remember, except for Japan and Thailand, the continent was under formal or de facto control of outsiders through half this century and had been for periods of up to several hundred years. We will be examining two very different countries that exemplify the diversity of Asian experiences, Japan and Sri Lanka, but first some basic background.

PHYSICAL (not including the former Soviet Asia)

From southwest Asia in a long arc to Japan, the continent spans some 7,000 miles and stretches some 4500 miles north to south. It covers the low to middle latitudes, mostly in the northern hemisphere. There are two Asias climatically, wet (green) and dry(brown). The major distinctive weather pattern is the monsoon and its failure or excess still affect the very lives of tens of millions in south and east Asia. There is in fact a hypothesis that the weather pattern over Tibet may tie in with the western Pacific oscillations and affect weather throughout the northern hemisphere and perhaps the world.

Looking at a map, the first thing that should strike you is the "peninsularity" of the continent -- second only to Europe. A closer look at the details reveals the "chopped up" nature of the land with a "knot" in the Pamirs, a generally high east to west trending mountain spine, and "fingers" pointed towards the seas. This has major effects on overland travel, especially in the pre-modern transport era. Asia is the highest elevation continent averaging 3,000 feet (North America - 2000, Africa - 1900, South America - 1800, and Europe - 1000). The human results of the physiography and the climate variation include the very uneven population density ranging from that of Tibet and the desert areas to the thousand or more per square kilometer in riverine India, coastal China and Japan and Java. The physical environment also encouraged development of quite different cultures, isolated from each other until recently. There are always exceptions to such generalizations and sea trade, the spread of such religions as Islam and Buddhism and the near ubiquity of rice culture are examples here.

BRIEF HISTORICAL OVERVIEW

If we "stretch" things a bit to cover Egypt's Nile Valley, Asia is the site of the world's first civilizations: the Nile, the Tigris-Euphrates, northwest India, northern China. Can you speculate on why? All the world's major religions started in Asia as did mathematics, astronomy, architecture and medicine. The common domestic animals -- dog, cat, cow, horse, sheep and pig -- were also Asian originated. Apart from the eastern Mediterranean littoral which had intimate ties with Asia at many points over time, there was long running but tenuous contact with Europe via central Asia (the Silk Road) and later via the Arabs trading by land and sea. These Euro-Asian contacts were most extensive in the "Middle East" -- Persian empires' expeditions towards the west, the Trojan war, and Alexander's expeditions to the east being perhaps the most famous in antiquity. The luxury trade in such things as silk and spices whetted European appetites for closer contact with these cornucopia without the expensive intervention of middlemen like the Turks, Arabs, Persians and Venetians. The strength of Islam, especially under the Turks made direct trade eastward difficult. So new routes to the orient were needed.

Development of maritime inventions (new sailing technology, navigation) in Portugal which later spread to other European countries made this possible. The lure of Asia played a critical role in these developments and their diffusion. First the Portuguese, then the Spanish, Dutch, English and French raced to find new routes to Asia and open trade. The earliest of these modern pathways to eventuate was the route around the Cape of Good Hope (why does this make geographic sense? look at a map from a historical atlas--pre Suez Canal), later joined by the trans-isthmian land route across Panama and the dangerous journey around Cape Horn as well as the land route through Egypt to the Red Sea. Centuries were spent looking for the almost mythic "Northwest Passage" to Asia, exemplified by the expeditions of Hudson (as in river and bay). The current undersea route developed for nuclear submarine use has also been proposed for trade purposes. There was also long lesser-known interest in a northeast sea route to Asia around northern Russia. Vitus Bering, of Bering Straits fame, was one of the (Danish) navigators hired by the Czars to explore for such a passage. The Suez (1869) and later the Panama (1914) canal were long time dreams, realized as soon as technology could cope.

Early European footholds were established in Ceylon (Sri Lanka), the Spice Islands (Indonesia), and in India (Goa - Portugal, Pondichery - France, Madras - England) and through restricted trading posts in China and Japan. The European drive for control rather than trade crested in the eighteenth and again in the nineteenth centuries. The English defeated the French in India in 1763 and succeeded in opening up China with the help of the opium trade in the 1840s. The Dutch took and held on to what is now Indonesia, the Portuguese kept snippets like Macau and E. Timor, the Spanish established a firm grip on the Philippines, and the French succeeded late in Indo-China. Later, the Germans picked up Pacific islands and part of New Guinea and the Japanese entered the colonial game with their win over China in 1895. By the turn of the twentieth century the vast bulk of China was, while nominally independent, a set of de facto colonies of various powers including the Japanese, Germans and Russians as well as the British and French. Even the "non-colonialist" United States picked up islands like the Hawaiian chain and the Philippines as well as trade privileges in China. Riots and mutinies were not uncommon but the Europeans kept control. Southwest Asia was tied up by treaty and protectorate agreements. Only Thailand and Japan were to remain independent (glance at maps to see if you can figure out why). The Russians reached the Pacific in the 1600s and kept pushing south and north from the early trails. They succeeded in the nineteenth century in taking parts of central Asia (consolidated as late as the 1920s) and "adjusted" their border with China to their liking. It has only recently been "confirmed" in talks freely entered into by both Russia and China. By the end of the nineteenth century, Japan became the first Asian country to establish modern colonies with the successful outcome of the Sino-Japanese war and the acquisition of the Ryukyus and Formosa (Taiwan).

The two world wars of this century were critical in setting the stage for present conditions. The first saw the Japanese emerge as a major recognized power and take over former German island territories and their concession in the Shandong peninsula, a precursor to later developments in Manchuria and China and the "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Scheme." The second world war saw the first defeats of western colonialism and the revolutionary success of the Japanese contributed to the upsurge of independence movements and the successful overthrow of former colonial masters. Although there were peaceful turnovers, mostly by the British, in places such as India like the many in Africa (Portuguese territories and Southern Africa aside), most of Asia "earned" its independence. Perhaps that is one reason why some Asian countries are very sensitive to what their leaders see as attempts by Westerners to impose our standards on them in areas such as free speech and human rights. [Many Asian human rights campaigners say this is self-serving nonsense on the part of autocrats and thugs.]

Headlines and other snippets:

"A tale of red guards and cannibals," NYT, 6Ja93, p.a8. Copies of official government documents, smuggled out of China by a dissident, from the late sixties in Guanxi province in southwest China seem to offer a meticulous record of how Red Guards and Communist officials in one province not only tortured their victims to death but also ate their flesh. At some high schools, students killed their principals and then cooked and ate the bodies to celebrate a triumph over "counterrevolutionaries," the documents say. Government cafeterias are supposed to have had bodies hung on meathooks and served human flesh to workers.

"Rally for Rama," The Economist, 13Ap91, p.36. Talks of the Bharatiya Janata party in India which is trying to build up a sense of Hindu power to win control of government. Notes support by 6000 holy men. Discusses the struggle over the mosque at Ayodhya whose destruction in late 1992 caused riots and deaths in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh.

"Worthwhile Canadian Initiative," The Economist, 13Ap91 p.35 is a brief description of Canadian attempts to set up a North Pacific Cooperative Security Dialogue to foster talking in an area where some of the world's biggest armies and navies coexist uneasily.

"The future written in a grain of rice," The Economist, 9Mr91, p.83. Rice provides the main calory source for 2.7 billion people in Asia. Mythically, the Japanese emperor is the living embodiment of the God of the ripened rice plant, Lord Vishnu created rice, and God Indra taught humankind how to grow it. The article talks of the problems in keeping rice production growing in light of some severe environmental and other problems.

"Asian adventures," The Economist, 30My92, p.17-18. Theme is that selling in Asian markets is difficult but worth the effort. About 55 percent of world population. Double the economic growth rate in the advanced countries. China and India with 2 billion people have potential growth rates of 10 percent a year. Asia buys half the world's semiconductors, 40 percent of the world's televisions. Challenge is dealing with vast and diverse area; three or four main cultures and several smaller ones. Business based more on personal contacts and trust than in the west. Remember what happened to those in the American auto business who thought in the 1960s that there was no reason to fear Japanese competition.

"China's silent upheaval," NYT, 30Mr92, p.a17. William Safire's column notes among other items remarks of China-watchers on its cultural/political geography: rigid north and freewheeling south; the inward looking "Yellow River" mindset of the interior and the "blue-water" mindset of Shanghai and Canton. I would extend this to include all coastal provinces from Shandong south.

"For India, will it be social change, secularism or a Hindu right wing," NYT, 2Ap91, p.a1 and a8. The title tells the story, but included is a neat map of the political landscape, description of the political parties and a concise description of critical issues. An excellent introduction to India now.

"The silk road catches fire," The Economist, 26De92, p,44-46. "With the endong of the cold war, the playground of Kipling's 'Great Game" is no longer out of bounds. But only true enthusiasts need apply." [See Peter Hopkirk, The Great Game: The Struggle for Empire in Central Asia. New York: Kodansha International, 1992.] Talks about human, physical, political geography of the former Soviet Central Asian republics and their current problems.

"Fortress Asia?," The Economist, 24Oc92, pp. 35-36. Discusses progess of talks about a southeast Asian free trade area, an idea raised by Malaysia some years ago as fears of trade restrictions by America and Europe became intense.

"The titan stirs," The Economist, 28No92, 18pp., special survey. "If China's economy grows as fast for the next 20 years as it has for the past 14, it will be the biggest economy on earth."

"China building its muscle, making some nervous," NYT 11Ja93, pp. 1 and a8. A diplomat: "Trying to become a superpower would be completely opposite to the tradition of the Chinese, because they never went outward on a grand scale." New military buildup, purchase of Su27s and possible aircraft carrier from Russia, upgrading of Chinese built naval vessels etc., claim over entire South China Sea, dispute over Senkaku/Diaoyu islands northeast of Taiwan, possibility of bases and listening posts being set up off Burma in exchange for aid to its military. A centerpiece of the article is a map showing China's view of its sphere of influence in the late 19th and early 20th century, based on a map published in 1954 and republished in John W. Garver, Foreign Relations of the People's Republic of China, Prentice-Hall, 1992. It includes Nepal, half of Bangladesh, Burma, Thailand, Malaysia, Indochina, Taiwan and north and south Korea.

"Afghanistan, always riven, is breaking into ethnic parts," NYT 17JA93, p.1 and 8 discusses the prospects that the country, two years after Russian troops withdrew and a year after the "freedom fighters" triumphed over the Soviet supported government, will split into three parts. Each would have a reasonable amount of ethnic, linguistic and religious unity. In the south and east the Pathans would dominate, in the southwest the people have longstanding ties with Persia/Iran and are Shiites as opposed to the predominant Sunni Moslems in the rest of the country, and in the north Tajiks and Uzbeks predominate. What is left out of this article is the likelihood that if this breakdown occurs, the pieces will either be absorbed by the neighboring states or will cause them to break down in turn.

"Clan feuds, an old problem, are still threatening Chinese," NYT 17Ja93, p10. Outsiders think of the Chinese as monolithic. But loyalties of most people start with the extended family, then the "clan" of the same surname, then the local area. And there are strong regional feelings and rivalries. This article reports on the fact that huge battles between rival clans have returned to China since old traditions have been allowed to re-emerge.

"Chinese bet their shirts on buttons and, Bingo!," NYT 18Ja93, p.4 discusses Qiaotou, Zhejiang province which by producing over 12 billion buttons a year in private factories is the button capital of the world.

"Southeast Asian economies" Economist 20Mr93, p24 talks of General Chatichai (Thailand) and his idea of suwannaphume, cooperation and development in SE Asia. Not all is rosy. Vietnam has an official goal of doubling the economy by 2000. That's impossible. It, per Nguyen Xuan Oanh an economist once prime minister of South Vietnam, would need 10 years and $2.8 billion a year to reach economic takeoff. With the US still witholding aid and discouraging others from investing, difficult! Also, much of the business in Myanmar and Indochina is environmental "pillage." Thai generals are hand in glove with Khmer Rouge and the thugs running Burma exporting gems and raw logs. But, the article says, the dream is worthwhile: "economic development is never to be rejected because it makes some people or class much richer than others"; and development may help defuse ancient tensions and modern ones too such as the impasse over the Spratly islands in the South China Sea.

"India: bombed but unbroken," Economist 20Mr93, p.39 discusses the recent bombings in Calcutta and Bombay using sophisticated bombs with Semtex and RDX. The government theory is that the bombers want to frighten away foreign investors -- targets included airlines, the stock exchange and hotels where businessmen stay. A second hypothesis is that the bombings were a revenge for any of several Indian actions: the Ayodhya mosque demolition and subsequent Hindu-Moslem riots, Sikhs answering the police killing of Gurbachan Singh Manochal, one of their heroes, or Tamil Tigers angry at the suicide of their second in command upon capture by Indian forces.

"Australia: all sax, no sound," Economist 20Mr93, p.40 talks of the surprising win by the Labor Party despite 11 percent unemployment and deep foreign debt. The opposition candidate's financial/taxation policies were not understood or appreciated by the public.

"The writer's heart belongs to India, and it bleeds," Edward Gargan, NYT 29Mr93, a6 discusses Khushwant Singh talking about the problems in keeping the dream of a secular India. "It is the genuinely secular Hindu against the Hindu." He has been assigned guards since 1985 when he opposed demands for an independent Sikh homeland (Khalistan). His essay "Why I am an Indian" is well known -- "Why am I an Indian? I did not have any choice: I was born one. If the good Lord hadd consulted me on the subject I might ave chosen a country more affluent, less crowded, less censorious in amtters of food and drink, unconcerned with personal equations and free of religious bigotry...My head tells me it is better to live abroad but my heart tells me 'get back to India' ."

"Despite U.S., Yeltsin backs rocket deal with India," Sanjoy Hazarika, NYT 30Ja93, p.2 told of his backing of continued sales of rocket engines for the Indian space program. He also said his country was "moving from a pro-Western emphasis," and considered itself a "Euro-Asian power." The engines are cryogenic (LH,LOx) and the US has objected because they have military implications, especially in conjunction with India's possession of nuclear weapons. It feels the sales violate the 1987 Missile Technology Control Regime which the space powers agreed to.

"Chinese puzzles: developing countries are less poor than official figures suggest," Economist 15My93, p83 describes a recent IMF (International Monetary Fund) exercise in revaluing GDP (Gross Domestic Product) estimates. Rather than using current foreign exchange values, they worked up a set of Purchasing Power Parities (PPP). These take price differences into account; for instance it is less expensive to have laundry done in China or to take public transportation than it is in the US. When one does this, developing countries' share of world output jumps from 18 to 34 percent. The article notes one of the best reasons for thinking this is the best way to handle such international comparisons is the case of Asia. Even though this is the fastest growing region by far, its share of world output between 1985-1990 fell from 7.9 to 7.2 percent because of falls in exchange rates against the dollar.

"That's Japan, by jingo," Economist 27Mr93, p36 talks of the Supreme Court's ruling that textbook screening does not conflict with academic freedom. The case was in regard to an historian, Saburo Ienaga, who took the government to court in 1965 (!) for not allowing his books in schools. He has said that Japan's military regime in the 1930s and 1940s glamorized war and covered up atrocities. The court also gave an Okinawa man a one year suspended sentence for burning the flag, noting it was damage to public property. The education ministry has taken heart from such cases and encouraged schools to show the flag and have students learn the national anthem. [This section on Japan is included to give an indication of the reasons why Japan's neighbors in Asia are still uneasy about its intentions.]

"Kim rides the dragon," Economist 27Mr93, pp35-36 discusses President Kim Young Sam's quote "I believe it is my historic mission to revive the economy. Our economy is in a very difficult situation. The time has come for sweat and tears." Growth has been slowing for 3 years and the World Bank has projected Korea as falling behind the other "little dragons." [Kim took office 25 February; he joined the governing party after years of being a dissident and his "gamble" paid off.]

"Hindus now demanding the leadership of India," Edward Gargan, NYT 24Ja93, p.3 talks of the challenge to secularism and tolerance (in India's constitution) by some Hindus. The main nationalist party, the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) advocates moving quickly to build nuclear weapons, ban a lot of foreign investment, promote a sense of Hindu accomplishments in religion, education, and culture. Its point is that the 726 million Hindus make up 83 percent of the population and should run the country. As an example of their policies, the case of Uttar Pradesh state is cited: there, primary and secondary curricula have emphasized Hindu accomplishments, English is discouraged, and conventional mathematics has been replaced by what is called Vedic math; Indian history conforms more to Hindu myth than normally accepted accounts. There is a genetic/eugenic component to BJP concerns, too. First is a worry about Moslems having higher birth rates than Hindus. Second is the feeling that the wrong (better class) Hindus are practising birth control while the poorer ones aren't.

"Indian police seize tens of thousands to block protest," Edward A. Gargan, NYT 25Fe93, p.1 notes more than 45,000 Hindus were arrested across India as they attempted to travel to the capital to join a big protest to force the government to resign. The Hindu nationalist party, the BJP, claims the government has suppressed the majority in favor of the 110 million Muslims.

"The Hindu Upsurge: The road to Ayodhya," Economist 6Fe93 pp21-23. Tries to make the point that the upsurge of Hindu militantism is but a symptom of a deeper malaise: the decay of the Indian state. Some quotes: (22)"the steady deterioration of political morality and governance since independence"; "In 1947 Congress was a party of national ideals...Nehru could and did, with impunity assault traditional Hindu practices. He brought in the concept of equality regardless of race, religion, caste or sex. Hindu personal law which denied women property rights, sanctioned dowry, permitted multiple marriages for men and forbade widow remarriage was scrapped. Muslim personal law was left alone, a sore point with the BJP." "Third factor ...steady grassroots work done to organize Hindus since 1925 by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sang...It disliked Gandhi's nonviolence, which it saw as an alien, Christian, concept." The problem is not a Hindu-Moslem one. It is a dispute between secular and communal Hindus over treatment of Moslems.

"China's newest partner: South Korea," Nicholas D. Kristof, NYT 5Ap93, D1. Talks of Korean ties with Shangdong province and its 42 million as paralleling Hong Kong and Guangdong and Taiwan with Fujian.

"Muslim militants share Afghan link," NYT 28Mr93, p14 The Afghan war of resistance was a training ground for Muslim militants throughout South Asia and the Middle East. Tie-in with World Trade Center bombing is one example; fundamentalists in Algeria and Egypt others.

"Son of North Korean leader may be succeeding to power," David E. Sanger, NYT 25Mr93, A10 talks about Kim Jong Il, the 51 year old "Dear Leader" and possibility he is the lead force behind the current nuclear confrontation.

"In northeast India, changes come swiftly and violently," Sanjoy Hazarika, NYT, 20 Au 95, A10 talks about the influence of newly available Western television and improvements in access by land and air. Five major rebel groups are fighting to maintain what they regard as their culture (more like Southeast than South Asian) and religion (Christian) against a flood of migrants from Bangladesh and lowland India. A quote from the article gives a flavor of the place. "The northeast has always been a bit of the wild west," said a former Indian Army general who was based in the area for several years, "Parts of it have been out of control where politicians and bureaucrats are hand in glove with militants, drugs and money."

"Vietnam: Oh, Ho," The Economist, 8 Ja 94, 38 "Achieve Uncle Ho's ideology: solidarity, solidarity, greater solidarity," says the draft prepared for the mid-term congress of the Vietnamese Communist Party. The full congress is due in 1996 and no one agrees what will be said. Economic reforms are still resisted by some members, blaming them for social problems like corruption.

"An ex-minister atones to return to Sikh fold," John Burns, NYT, 2 Ap 94, 4 talks about the penance being done by Buta Singh, an ex minister of Indira Gandhi's government to atone for the government's 1984 attack on the Sikh's holy temple at Amritsar. The Punjab seems to be settling down; 73 killings in 1993 - down from 1770 in 1992. Reports indicate an upsurge of prosperity with the decline in violence.

"Burmese cry intrusion (They lack a great wall)," Philip Shenon, NYT, 29 Mr 94, A4 talks about growing Chinese influence as supplier to the military and Burma's largest trade partner. Burmese are growing uncertain as to whether this is a good thing, but the country's continuing isolation due to its military leaders' policies make it unlikely that it will change.

"Burmese general bars talks soon with arrested democracy leader," Philip Shenon, NYT, 8 Mr 94, A8 reports the head of Burmese military intelligence, Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt ruled out early talks with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, under house arrest despite her party's winning 80% of the last vote and receiving a Nobel Peace Prize.

"AIDS onslaught breaches the Burmese citadel," Philip Shenon, NYT, 11 Mr 94, 4 talks of the late and reluctant admission by Burma that it has fallen victim to the same epidemic as its southeast Asian neighbors. The problems here are familiar: a growth in prostitution supposedly via migrants, a large population of intravenous drug users, shortage of condoms and a social system that makes AIDS education difficult. Estimates of HIV positive people run from 150-450,000 out of a population of 43 million and the infection rate among intravenous drug users in surveys runs 80%, the highest in the world.

"How and why to survive Chinese tax torture," The Economist, 2 De 95, 63-64 says "Many Chinese officials still think that exploiting foreigners is patriotic. Even so, the country's market is becoming much like any other, only bigger." Big gains may lie ahead for those who stay the course but in the immediate future, taxes on foreign businesses will increase.

"India in a hurry," The Economist, 5 Mr 94, 17 talks about a speedup of economic growth and foreign investment in India. GDP growth since 1991 has been 3.1% compared with China's 10.9% and the $900 million in direct foreign investment compares poorly with the $15 billion going to China. Still, this was much better than performance earlier.