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Hurricane Isabel Poised for Mid-Atlantic Downpour
University Park, Pa. – Hurricane Isabel, moving up
the Eastern Seaboard has no choice but to turn westward
into the mid Atlantic states. The only question left
is where exactly it will turn and which states will
feel her fury, according to a Penn State meteorologist.
“Isabel is a strong hurricane and is in a position
that makes it a storm almost certain to make landfall
along the East Coast of the U.S.,” says Frederick J.
Gadomski, Penn State meteorologist.
Usually, hurricanes have an even chance of moving off
to the northeast, but with Isabel that is virtually
impossible. According to Gadomski, an existing strong
high pressure area in the Atlantic Ocean will prevent
Isabel from going out to sea and ensure that she makes
landfall along the mid Atlantic coast.
“The big worry is where the storm will make landfall
and how intense it is when it does,” says Gadomski.
Of concern in Pennsylvania is a 40-mile wide swath
in eastern Pennsylvania covering the area between Harrisburg
and Philadelphia and encompassing Scranton. A stationary
storm yesterday (Sept 15) dropped more than six inches
of rain in that area. If Isabel should produce heavy
rains in eastern Pennsylvania in three or four days,
a great potential for flooding exists, according to
Gadomski.
"Historically, we have evidence that 100 miles
either side of the hurricane center has the potential
for 3 to 10 inches of rain in an 18-hour period,” says
Gadomski.
“If Isabel comes in east of Cape Hatteras and into
the Delmarva Peninsula and New Jersey coast moving northwest,
it will move over the heart of Pennsylvania and all
of the state will receive heavy rain. “If Isabel makes
landfall south of Cape Hatteras and into southern Virginia,
the impact on Pennsylvania will be far less.”
In the past, dying tropical storms have affected Pennsylvania,
notably Hurricane Hazel in 1954 and tropical storm Agnes
in 1972. While most people initially think of high winds
and storm serges as the major dangers of hurricanes,
these factors are only problems for those near the coast.
The biggest problems related to hurricanes for the majority
of people are water related.
"If Isabel comes into Pennsylvania, then eastern
Pennsylvania, because of the recent storm, will have
record floods,” says Gadomski. Throughout the state,
water tables are unusually high and streams that should
be at low and dropping levels are high as well. “The
unusually wet summer primed the situation to be worse
than it might have been after a normal summer,” says
Gadomski.
*aem*
EDITORS: Mr. Gadomski may be reached at 814-863-4229.
Others at Penn State’s Weather Communications Group
can answer your questions as well. A'ndrea Elyse Messer
Science & Research Information Officer Penn State 814-865-9481
814-865-9421 aem1@psu.edu
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